A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
