Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
